The Nordics: no place for non-incumbents

Telenor buying Vodafone Sweden is the latest on a long shopping list involving the Nordic incumbents.

Deals this year:

• Telenor: buys Vodafone Sweden, starts a multi-brand mobile strategy in Denmark, introduces triple play services over ADSL2+ in Sweden, is interested in a DTT license and buy WiMAX spectrum in Norway, acquires Bredbandsbolaget in Sweden and Cybercity in Denmark, at an earlier stage acquired Canal Digital (pan-Nordic).
• TeliaSonera: denies market rumours about a possible bid for Telenor and leaves the TDC auction, introduces triple play services over ADSL2+ in Finland and Sweden, acquires Chess/Sense in Norway, at an earlier stage acquired Orange Denmark.
• TDC: may bid for Finnish mobile operator DNA, acquires Swedish Dotcom, starts an MVNO in Norway on Telenor's network, at an earlier stage acquired Song Networks.

What may be concluded?

• Vodafone and Orange have left the region. Vodafone now has Partner Networks in every Nordic country, except Norway. Telenor may well be the next partner.
• Tele2 left Finland. Will it stay in Norway and Denmark?
• Telenor, TeliaSonera and TDC will lead the consolidation. Several smaller operators could be up for sale, e.g.: NextGenTel (fixed) in Norway, Elisa (primarily mobile) in Finland.
• No consolidation to be expected among the three incumbents.
• With Apax et al bound to be the new TDC owners, interesting times are coming.
• Any large European telco wanting to enter the market would simply need to buy any of the three incumbents. It would face stiff competition but no regulatory hurdles.