Monday, September 26, 2022

Telenet Capital Markets Day: focus remains on Flanders

CMD From Connectivity to Customer Centricity, 2023-2025

Strategic focus:

  • Telenet growth with simple & personalised offerings:
    • Residential (FMC, In-Home Connectivity, entertainment)
    • E&M (Content, prodco, VR)
    • B2B (Private 5G, ICT, Managed services, security; growth organic & via acquisitions)
  • NetCo (with Fluvius)
  • Transform operating model (based on DigitalBridge and Fluvius transactions)
  • Invest to create value longterm (NetCo EUR 2b, platforms 200m, 5G 300m)
  • ESG a part of all

Confirms outlook 2022:

  • Rev EUR 2.6b
  • expenses 1.7b, capex 0.5b (excl NetCo), opex excl personnel & energy -5% = EUR 20m
  • leverage lower end of 3.5-4.5x range
  • dividend fixed 1 EUR/yr (rising midterm from selling NetCo stake or optimising FTTH, rising longterm from lower capex intensity post FTTH)

To expand outside core into Digital Home, Business & Life:

  • Tadaam (FWA)
  • june (energy)
  • Safespot
  • The Park (VR)
  • Unit-T
  • its me
  • doccle (digital document platform)

Raises Caviar (prodco) stake:

  • from 49 to 70%; management remaining 30%
  • Consolidation from 221001
  • 2021: rev EUR 126m, EBITDA 8.8m

NetCo:

  • target 70% coverage in Flanders by 2029
  • fiber reduces maintenance 40%, power consumption 80%
  • target peak run-rate 430k premises/annum (2025-27)
  • 2022E KPIs: 2.1-2.2m subs (penetration ~60%), blended ARPU ~EUR 22, EBITDA margin longterm ~80%, maintenenance capex longterm <10% of rev
  • 2022E: rev EUR 0.6b, capex 0.1b, leverage 4.9x (longterm 6.0x)
NetCo original announcement (220719):
  • Establish 66.8/33.2 JV NetCo with Fluvius System Operator
  • to migrate from HFC to 'network of the future' (incl FTTH, target coverage 78% by 2038; plans Docsis upgrade in remaining areas, Docsis 4.0 from 2024), target 10 Gb/s
  • total capex EUR 2.0b (most 2023-2029; 650 EUR/home (excl capex for connection) for FTTH for >50% of homes)
  • fully financed (incl towers proceeds EUR 745m), leverage target 5.0x (ie net debt EUR 2.4b)
  • both to contribute current HFC & fiber assets, Telenet to contribute 170 employees (to hire 50 more), Fluvius to contribute lease to Telenet until 2046 (covers 1/3 of Flanders), to end on closing of JV early 2023
  • to be fully consolidated
  • open for additional investors, to provide non-discriminatory open access wholesale
  • to launch with near 60% occupancy
  • net debt Telenet to be reduced by EUR 500m (0.4x) on ending Fluvius lease, to maintain leverage at 4.0x
  • lowers div pay-out floor to 1.00 EUR/yr for 2023-29 (payable in May after AGM) from currently 2.75 EUR/yr
  • capex to drop strongly after 2029
  • plans CMD end Sep 2022
  • current data usage on fixed average 239 GB/mo


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